WB & ADB: Temperature rise in Azerbaijan to affect energy

Azerbaijan is developing long-term, low-emissions development strategies to enhance its climate-resilience actions within national development plans, according to the “Climate Risk Country Profile: Azerbaijan” joint report prepared by the World Bank (WB) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Report informs.

Research suggests that on average, a one degree increase in ambient temperature can result in a 0.5–8.5 percent increase in electricity demand. Notably, this serves business and residential air-cooling systems.

“This increase in demand places strain on energy generation systems which is compounded by the heat stress on the energy generation system itself, commonly due to its own cooling requirements, which can reduce its efficiency. The number of cooling degree days (when such cooling systems would be required) is projected to increase significantly in Azerbaijan by the 2090s. The vulnerability of Azerbaijan’s energy sector to the pressures of high heats have been exposed over the 21st century, including outages during the heatwave of 2018,” reads the report.

While the majority of energy produced in Azerbaijan comes from fossil fuels, hydroelectric power generation also plays a role in the country’s generation capacity. Hydropower accounted for 8 percent of generation in Azerbaijan in 2016, down from 18 percent in 2010, according to the report.

“While there is little certainty in precipitation forecasts for the coming decades, the accelerated melting of glaciers and increased evaporation have the potential to damage Azerbaijan’s capacity to generate energy in this way. Azerbaijan is developing long-term, low-emissions development strategies to enhance its climate-resilience actions within national development plans,” reads the report.

As well as impacting on human health, the temperature peaks that will result from combined UHI (urban heat island effect) and climate change, as well as future urban expansion, are likely to damage the productivity of the service sector economy, both through direct impacts on labor productivity, but also through the additional costs of adaptation.

Temperatures in Azerbaijan are projected to rise at a faster rate than the global average, with potential warming of 4.7°C by the 2090s over the 1986–2005 baseline, under the highest emissions pathway, according to the report.

The strongest warming is expected to occur during summer months, with average temperatures between July and September projected to rise by almost 6°C by the 2090s.

Electricity output in Azerbaijan in January-August 2021 amounted to 18.612 billion kWh, which is an increase of 1.109 billion kWh.

Production at thermal power plants amounted to 17.409 billion kWh (+994.2 million), at hydroelectric power plants - 966.9 million kWh (+120.3 million), from other sources (wind power, solar power, Baku solid domestic waste incineration plant) - 235.8 million kWh (-4.8 million). Wind power plants generated 58.6 million kWh, solar - 38 million kWh, and a municipal solid waste incineration plant - 139.2 million kWh.