Armenia's trade surge raises concerns over sanctions evasion

Findings from a recent economic study on Armenia's import-export operations, conducted by Azerbaijan's Economics International Economic Research Public Union, have been revealed, Report informs.

At a briefing, the union's chairman, Fikrat Yusifov, stated that Armenia's foreign trade volume has seen a dramatic rise since international sanctions were imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. Citing official data from Armenia"s Statistical Committee and other government sources, Yusifov noted that the country"s foreign trade turnover increased 4.2 times over the past five years - from $7.1 billion to over $30.2 billion.

"A country increases imports primarily to meet domestic demand. So what changed that allowed Armenia to boost its import volumes so drastically?" Yusifov questioned. He pointed out that imports of natural or cultured pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, and metals surged particularly sharply - from just $248.4 million in 2021 to over $7.4 billion in 2024, marking a 30-fold increase.

He argued that such a spike is suspicious for a country grappling with economic hardship and social instability following its defeat in the 44-day war with Azerbaijan. "This level of luxury goods imports suggests that covert operations may be taking place under the guise of trade."

Economist-expert Malik Hasanov of the same research union added that hundreds of companies linked to Russian businessmen have emerged in Armenia since the war in Ukraine began. He expressed suspicion that many of these entities may be involved in illicit activities.

"No one can explain how more than 75% of Russia's exports to Armenia suddenly consist of luxury goods like pearls and precious metals," Hasanov said.

Legal expert Bayram Sadigov also weighed in, referencing UN General Assembly resolutions that hold countries accountable not only for violations of international law but also for enabling other states to commit such violations. In this context, both Russia and Armenia's roles warrant scrutiny, he said.

Yusifov emphasized that these trade patterns suggest Armenia is facilitating the import of goods from third countries that are necessary for Russia"s military operations in Ukraine and re-exporting them under different classifications. He claimed that Russia is using Armenia as a means to circumvent international sanctions.

He criticized European institutions, particularly the EU and France, for ignoring these developments, despite their involvement in deploying observers along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Yusifov pointed out that components found in Russian drones shot down over Ukraine - produced in France and Canada between 2022 and 2024 - indicate that sanctions are being bypassed.

Azerbaijani NGOs have repeatedly sent open letters to international sanctions authorities, urging an investigation into Armenia's foreign trade activities. These appeals underline the disproportionate rise in Armenia"s trade with Russia, coinciding with the escalation of sanctions on Moscow.

The briefing concluded with a warning that by serving as a trade lifeline for Russia, Armenia is indirectly financing the war in Ukraine and undermining global efforts to restore peace and uphold international law.