Analyst: Armenia and Azerbaijan to benefit from peace agreement

Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan could bring significant advantages to both sides: Armenia may emerge from regional isolation, while Azerbaijan would gain a land connection with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, Wojciech Górecki, an analyst at the Warsaw Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), said in Polskie Radio, according to Report.

Górecki noted that mistrust between the countries had been strong and that there had been no reliable mediator for years. "Russia, once the main mediator, has lost influence in both capitals. Negotiations repeatedly broke down due to border clashes," he emphasized.

However, a breakthrough has emerged this year. In March, negotiators announced agreement on the text of a peace deal. On August 8, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a declaration with US President Donald Trump, reaffirming their commitment to peace. During the same summit, the foreign ministers of both countries initiated an additional agreement.

Despite this progress, Górecki stressed that "significant obstacles remain."

"Baku insists on amendments to Armenia's constitution, where the preamble still references Nagorno-Karabakh, which Azerbaijan views as a territorial claim. Yerevan allows for such changes, but constitutional amendments cannot be implemented overnight," he wrote.

At the same time, border tensions have eased, and the sides have reached an agreement on transit to Nakhchivan. Instead of an extraterritorial "corridor," which Armenia feared could compromise its sovereignty, the new road and railway will operate under the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" (Zangazur Corridor), jointly managed by Armenia and the US.

"Despite analyst skepticism, peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan-and potentially between Armenia and Türkiye-now seems closer than ever," Górecki concluded.