Georgian expert: Armenia has no resources to confront Azerbaijan

Report's interview with Guram Markhulia, a Georgian political expert and doctor of history.

- Shooting on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border is not calming down. Russian peacekeepers have been temporarily stationed in the region. In line with their mandate, they have to assist the establishment of peace. But the reality is that Armenian armed units fire shots from the territories controlled by Russian peacekeepers. Is Armenia setting Russia up by challenging its peacekeeping mission to achieve the deployment of the OSCE or UN peacekeeping contingent, or are there other reasons here?

- The issue of the need for the peaceful resolution of existing conflicts is always raised in international relations. Therefore, the peacekeeping policy plays a special role in international organizations, including the United Nations. The concept of peacekeeping activity rests on principles of international law, while the task is putting an end to conflicts and their prevention. It seems that all issues are resolved; there are organizations that won't tolerate wars, conflicts, violence, etc. But, alas...

Russia is pursuing its interests in the region. Therefore, the question here is not so much about Nagorno Karabakh but the South Caucasus, in general. The borders of Iran and Turkey pass through here, and the appearance of Russian peacekeepers aims to prevent these countries from penetrating the South Caucasus.

The provocative actions of Armenians in the area controlled by Russian peacekeepers are not surprising. The ideological and ethnic coloring of the Armenian national ideology represents an inexhaustible interest for historians. Armenian armed formations will violate the ceasefire all the time, not only due to the Armenian leadership's intention to replace Russian peacekeepers with the OSCE or UN contingent. It is all dictated by Armenia's wish to rehabilitate in the eyes of their public. The 44-day war that ended with the Armenian army's defeat to some extent stung Armenians' pride. The provocative actions will only end if Armenia signs a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and Russian peacekeepers withdraw from the region.

- Do you think that the trilateral agreement signed with Russia's mediation will be doomed to the same fate as the ill-fated UN resolutions on Karabakh? The provisions of the tripartite agreement, particularly the fourth paragraph, are not fulfilled.

- Certainly, there is a difference between the UN resolutions and the tripartite agreement. All four resolutions of the United Nations were adopted autonomously during the first Karabakh war, and, as is known, they implied the liberation of the occupied territories. But unfortunately, the United States was not in a hurry to fulfill them for almost three decades, due to which Azerbaijan was obliged to liberate its territories through a military way.

As for the first paragraph of the agreement, I think Russian peacekeepers' presence in the region will be prolonged for five more years. The Azerbaijani side won't hurry with the withdrawal of peacekeepers since it understands that Russia will have to leave not only Nagorno Karabakh but the region, in general, over time.

- How do you think the situation will end? Will Armenia be forced to peace?

- There are two main ways of managing conflicts - persuasion and force. In this case, these methods of managing conflicts are inapplicable for Armenia since it is in total dependence. Armenia is ready to sign the peace agreement with Azerbaijan already now since it has neither human nor military or economic resources to continue to confront Azerbaijan. As is known, the South Caucasus is the region where the geostrategic interests of Russia and the United States cross, but the United States is not in a hurry to win this geopolitical struggle. I suppose that one of the reasons is the strengthening of Turkey in the region, which is becoming a chain between the East and West, North and South. It happens through the increase in interaction with many regional powers, including Russia.