ING updates its inflation forecast for Azerbaijan for 2025-2026

ING Group, the Netherlands' largest banking group, forecasts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 5.8% in 2025, 5.9% in 2026, and 8.9% in 2027, Report informs referring to ING.

Expectations for the current year have increased by 0.3 percentage points compared to previous forecasts, and by 0.5 percentage points for next year, while the forecast for 2027 remains unchanged.

The bank's analysts expect inflation to reach 6.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, ING expects average annual inflation at 5.9%, in the second quarter 6.1%, in the third quarter 6%, in the fourth quarter 5.7%, in the first quarter of 2027 at 8.6%, in the second quarter at 9.3%, in the third quarter 9%, and in the fourth quarter 8.8%.

According to the Ministry of Economy's forecasts, average annual inflation in the country will be 5.4% this year, 4.8% in 2026, and 4.5% in 2027. According to the latest forecasts from the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (October 2025), inflation will be around 6% this year and around 5.7% in 2026.

The UN, meanwhile, forecasts inflation in Azerbaijan at 3.6% this year and 3.1% next year. The World Bank expects average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 2.3% in 2025-2026.

The Asian Development Bank forecasts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 4.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026.

S&P Global and Moody's forecast average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 4% and 3% this year and next, respectively, while Fitch Ratings forecasts 5.3% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026.

Average annual inflation in Azerbaijan was 2.2% last year and 5.7% in January-September 2025.