Fitch Solutions updates Azerbaijan inflation forecast for 2025-2026

Fitch Solutions (FS), part of the Fitch Group, has updated its inflation outlook for Azerbaijan, projecting average annual inflation at 5.7% in 2025, 5.5% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027, Report informs.

Previously, FS expected inflation at 6% in 2025 and 5.1% in 2026.

According to the company's extended forecast, average annual inflation is expected to reach 4.8% in 2028, 4.9% in 2029, 4.7% in 2030, 5% in 2031, 4.9% in 2032, 4.8% in 2033 and 4.9% in 2034.

FS also projects annual (year-end) inflation at 5% in 2025, 4.9% in 2026, 5.3% in 2027, 5.1% in 2028, 3.5% in 2029, 2.6% in 2030, 2.4% in 2031, 2% in 2032, 1.5% in 2033 and 0.8% in 2034.

The Ministry of Economy expects average annual inflation at 5.4% this year, 4.8% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. The Central Bank of Azerbaijan forecasts inflation within 6% for 2025 and around 5.7% for 2026.

The UN projects inflation at 3.6% this year and 3.1% next year, while the World Bank anticipates an average of 2.3% in 2025–2026. The Asian Development Bank forecasts 4.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026.

Moody's expects inflation at 4% this year and 3% in 2026, and Fitch Ratings at 5.3% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026. ING Group forecasts 5.8% in 2025, 5.9% in 2026 and 8.9% in 2027.

Last year, Azerbaijan's average inflation stood at 2.2%, rising to 5.7% for January–October 2025.