ING revises inflation forecasts for Azerbaijan for 2025–2026

Dutch banking giant ING Group has revised its inflation forecasts for Azerbaijan, projecting an average annual inflation rate of 5.7% in 2025 and 2026, rising to 8.9% in 2027.

According to Report, citing ING, the bank"s expectations for this year have been raised by 0.1 percentage points, by 0.2 points for next year, while the forecast for 2027 remains unchanged.

Analysts expect fourth-quarter 2025 inflation to reach 5.8%. For 2026, ING anticipates average quarterly inflation of 5.7% in Q1, 5.9% in Q2, and 5.7% in both Q3 and Q4.

By comparison, Azerbaijan"s Ministry of Economy forecasts average annual inflation at 5.4% this year, 4.8% in 2026, and 4.5% in 2027. The Central Bank of Azerbaijan, in its October 2025 forecast, expects inflation to be around 6% this year and approximately 5.7% in 2026.

The UN projects inflation at 3.6% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, while the World Bank expects average annual inflation of 2.3% over the same period. The Asian Development Bank forecasts inflation at 4.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026.

International rating agencies also offer varying forecasts: Moody"s expects inflation of 4% this year and 3% next year; Fitch Ratings projects 5.3% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026; Fitch Solutions estimates 5.7% for 2025, 5.5% for 2026, and 4.8% in 2027.

For context, Azerbaijan recorded average annual inflation of 2.2% last year, with 5.7% inflation reported between January and October 2025.