Azerbaijan plans to stabilize emissions in agricultural sector by increasing forest cover

Forest expansion will be a central element of decarbonization in Azerbaijan, significantly increasing carbon sequestration in the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector, Report informs referring to the updated Azerbaijan's Nationally Determined Contribution 3.0.

"As a sector, it is the country's largest employer providing jobs for 36% as of 2022. Overall, in the past decades agricultural production has been growing at a CAGR of 11% since 2000 and is expected to continue to grow mainly based on land availability and food needs of the population.

Agricultural lands covered about 4.8 mln hectares in 2022. Across these lands, the total number of livestock was approximately 10.5 mln heads, consisting of mainly cattle and sheep as of 2022. In 2022, the agriculture sector emitted a total of 8.0 MtCO₂eq, with emissions stemming both from livestock and crop production activities releasing CO₂, CH4, and N₂O. Out of all emissions, CO₂ emissions are largely linked to energy use in farm machinery, particularly diesel consumption, while methane and N₂O emissions mainly come from enteric fermentation in ruminant animals and the anaerobic decomposition of manure. Enteric fermentation and energy-related emissions are the largest contributors, accounting for 64% and 16% of total sectoral emissions, respectively. Cattle and sheep are responsible for 67% and 27% of enteric fermentation emissions, underscoring their dominant role in agricultural emissions.

Alongside these emissions, the sector also has a stabilizing element in the form of the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, which acts as a carbon sequestration mechanism," reads the update.

In 2022, LULUCF contributed a net carbon sequestration of 5.2 MtCO₂eq, with forest land emission removals accounting for 3.6 MtCO₂ across 1.04 million hectares. This sequestration has played a significant role in offsetting the overall emissions impact of the agriculture sector.

Despite the growth in agricultural activity, forest land expansion under the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) segment is expected to play a crucial stabilizing role in absorbing emissions. The projected expansion of approximately 30,000 hectares of forest land by 2026 will increase the total forest coverage to 12.3%, forming a key part of the country's broader emission stabilization efforts. The increase in forest land is supported by Azerbaijan's 2022-2026 Socio-Economic Development Strategy, which emphasizes forest area expansion and the promotion of sustainable agricultural practices to mitigate overall emissions.

Emission reductions in this sector will be realized through a combination of abatement themes touching upon the major sources, such as livestock and energy use, while significantly boosting carbon removals, primarily driven by the expansion of forest land within the LULUCF framework.

Addressing methane emissions from livestock, particularly through advanced feed additives and dietary practices, will be key in the agriculture sector. However, since most of the livestock in the country are free-range and not managed in feedlots, the overall impact may be limited. Medium- and large-scale composting facilities will also aid in controlling emissions from manure. Additionally, optimizing livestock size by increasing the portion of larger breed animals could help reducing methane emissions.

Transitioning from diesel-powered agricultural machinery and equipment to electric alternatives will be another major step toward emissions reduction. This shift will encompass not only mobile vehicles but also stationary equipment, such as water pumps, irrigation systems, grain builders and crop processing equipment, refrigeration systems for the storage of agricultural products, and other essential machinery. However, the success of this transition will depend on developing the necessary infrastructure to support the widespread adoption of electric vehicles and machinery.

Adopting improved farming techniques, such as reducing fertilizer overuse, no-tillage, and precision agriculture, will help further lower emissions while boosting efficiency and sustainability across the sector. Additionally, given the general challenge of soil erosion due to country's mountainous landscape, the establishment of a smart systems including detailed land information system is considered an important measure to enhance the effectiveness of these practices and improve long-term sustainability outcomes.

Expanding forest land will play a pivotal role in the country's decarbonization efforts, significantly enhancing carbon sequestration within the AFOLU sector. Beyond achieving target in AFOLU, LULUCF offers an additional carbon removal capacity, providing extra sequestration potential that could support the decarbonization efforts of other sectors as well, contributing to broader national sustainability goals.

To reach the decarbonization target by 2035, it is essential to have a comprehensive emissions mitigation strategy that outlines specific actions and measures for reducing emissions.

Achieving emission reductions in the AFOLU sector will require targeted capital investments, particularly in grain processing technologies and the electrification of machinery. The shift to electric machinery will also necessitate the development of EV infrastructure, including charging stations and battery storage, requiring additional investments.

Furthermore, annual operating expenses will be influenced by several factors, with seaweed and 3-NOP additives being the most significant contributors to operational costs as they are key to reducing methane emissions. The successful implementation of these measures is contingent on ensuring they do not negatively impact agricultural productivity.