IMF sees signs of US economic strain but lack of data due to shutdown clouds picture

The International Monetary Fund is seeing signs of strain in the US economy with fourth-quarter growth likely decelerating from previous forecasts, but a lack of data due to the government shutdown has clouded its ability to assess US economic performance, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said on Thursday, Report informs via Reuters.

Kozack told a regular news briefing that the IMF has delayed its annual "Article IV" policy consultations with US authorities because the shutdown prevented preparatory work, with rescheduled timing not yet set.

"The US economy has proven to be resilient in the past few years. We do now see strains starting to mount," Kozack said.

"Domestic demand has been moderating, and job growth is slowing. The combination of slowing immigration inflows, tariffs, broader policy uncertainty have been weighing on activity."

She said that there would be a negative impact on US growth in the fourth quarter due to the record 43-day partial government shutdown, and the rate would likely be below the IMF's previous forecast of 1.9% issued in October.

Kozack added, however, that this effect would likely be reversed in the first quarter of 2026, in line with the end of previous US government shutdowns. But the lack of accurate economic data since October 1 "has recently complicated our ability to assess the state of the US economy and to undertake our preliminary work for the Article IV consultation," Kozack said.

She repeated the IMF's view that US inflation is on a path to return to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, but tariffs have increased upside risks to inflation while slowing job growth further complicates the Fed's monetary policy choices. "So the Fed has appropriately lowered the policy rate in recent months," Kozack said.

"We see caution needed going forward as the Fed balances these two factors of sort of upside risk to inflation and downside risk to the job market."

The IMF still views inflation expectations in the US as being "well anchored," she said, but noted that while the rate of price increases has slowed, the higher level of prices "is causing pain in certain segments of society."

Asked about the implications of the Trump administration's boycott of a G20 leaders summit in South Africa on November 21-23, Kozack said that the forum remains an important platform for the world's biggest economies to "pool expertise to solve shared problems."

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva is scheduled to attend the summit after meetings in Angola with government authorities. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent participated in a G20 finance leaders meeting in October during IMF and World Bank annual meetings and helped deliver a joint G20 declaration to keep working on debt vulnerabilities.

"So this was an important outcome of that G20 meeting, and we do expect, going forward, that the topic of debt will remain a priority under the upcoming US G20 presidency," Kozack said.