WB, ADB talk on socio-economic consequences of climate change for Azerbaijan

The population annually affected by flooding in Azerbaijan is estimated at 19,200 people and expected annual impact on GDP is estimated at $169 million, reads a report by the World Bank (WB) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) “Climate Risk Country Profile: Azerbaijan,” Report informs.

“Development and climate change are both likely to increase these figures and by 2030, is expected to decrease the annually affected population by 1,100 people, and to have no significant GDP impact. With regard to flash flooding, the model ensemble does not project a significant increase in heavy rainfall: the average largest 5-day cumulative rainfall is not expected to be significantly higher in the 2090s than its current level in any of the four emissions pathways,” the WB noted.

However, further research is required to constrain future flash flood and landslide potential, as this rainfall projection contradicts global trends of increased rainfall intensity. Azerbaijan currently has pockets of significant landslide risk in its northern and western mountain belts.

Azerbaijan faces significant disaster risk levels and is ranked 61st out of 191 countries by the 2020 Inform Risk Index. Azerbaijan has relatively high exposure to natural hazards such as flooding, including, riverine, flash, and coastal, and relatively low institutional strength to combat increased risks and natural hazard exposure. The country’s risk is enhanced particularly by high levels of drought risk (ranked 35th), but also by its moderate levels of flood risk and social vulnerability.

Azerbaijan can experience high maximum temperatures, with an average monthly maximum of around 17°C, however, summer temperatures peak with an average July maximum of 31°C.

“The current median probability of a heat wave (defined as a period of three or more days where the daily temperature is above the long-term 95^th percentile of daily mean temperature) is around 2 percent. The model ensemble projects an increase in the annual probability of a heatwave occurring in Azerbaijan in the 2090s in all emissions pathways, with the probability of a heat wave being significantly higher than its historical (1986–2005) level. This increase in the probability of heat waves is projected to affect all parts of the country equally. Overall, climate change is likely to mean that heat stress becomes a much more regular occurrence,” reads the report.

Azerbaijan is projected to experience temperatures above 40°C on an annual basis by the 2090s.

“Many of the climate changes projected are likely to disproportionately affect the poorest groups in society. Global research also shows a common trend that more unequal countries typically have proportionately more people affected by natural hazards. While Azerbaijan has tended to hold lower levels of income inequality in comparison with its neighbors, high levels of inequality across financial and social outcomes prevails. Climate-related hazards are likely to slow progress in improving the wellbeing of poorer groups, eradicating poverty and malnutrition.

Additionally, heavy manual labor jobs are commonly among the lowest paid whilst also being most at risk of productivity losses due to heat stress and poorer businesses are least able to afford air conditioning, an increasing need given the projected increase in cooling days,” the WB noted.

In rural areas, poorer farmers and communities are least able to afford local water storage, irrigation infrastructure, and technologies for adaptation. Productivity in agriculture is already below the national average, so that the sector only accounted for 5 percent of GDP on average from 2013 to 2017.

Greater variability in precipitation, increased probability of drought and increased temperatures are likely to exacerbate regional and sectoral inequality in Azerbaijan, by having a disproportionately severe effect on rain-fed agriculture.

The increase in the frequency of extreme temperatures over 35°C is a particular threat, likely damaging crop yields when occurring during the growing season. Job creation outside of agriculture has been an issue in rural areas of the country, suggesting that those who work in farming may have little recourse to other sources of income in the event of severe weather phenomena or shocks to crop yields.

The poorer and more rural parts of Azerbaijan are also likely to feel the biggest impact from the impact of climate change on water resources. In terms of water and sanitation, in 2009 there was a marked variation in circumstances between urban areas of the country, where 88 percent have access to sanitation and 96 percent have piped water, and rural areas, where only 40 percent had access to sanitation and 47 percent had piped water.

These disparities would leave the rural population at greater risk of hardship if the water supply shortages projected by the UNDP (2011) materialize by the middle of the century. The relatively poorer quality water distribution infrastructure in rural areas may also increase the risk of gastrointestinal infections if water quality or consistency of supply begins to deteriorate due to more frequent droughts and reduced river flow.