ING: Azerbaijan keeps external resilience, but current account balance under pressure

ING Group, the Netherlands' largest banking group, forecasts that Azerbaijan will maintain a current account surplus of approximately 2% of GDP in 2025, but this may shift into a deficit of approximately 3.3% of GDP as early as 2026, Report informs referring to ING.

The decline in the surplus is due to a gradual narrowing of the trade balance, driven by lower global oil prices and a steady increase in imports.

"The current account surplus continues to shrink as the trade surplus approaches zero, driven by lower oil prices and robust import growth. The CBRA has become increasingly focused on FX market flows, with recent communications emphasising the importance of maintaining external stability. We expect the current account to post a small surplus of 2% of GDP in 2025, but see a high risk of a negative current account in 2026 if current trends persist.

The latest customs data shows that import growth remains strong, particularly for machinery and consumer goods, while export receipts have softened in line with oil market developments," reads the update. "Going forwards, we believe the key watch factors for investors include the current account, which should remain positive if Brent prices exceed US$60/bbl, and the amount of state savings in the SOFAZ oil fund and CBRA FX reserves."

According to the Central Bank, the current account surplus amounted to 6.3% of GDP in the first half of 2025.

At the end of the same period, the balance of payments surplus reached $2.3 billion, 11.7% lower than in January–June 2024.

The Central Bank forecasts that the current account surplus will remain at $3–4 billion annually in 2025–2026.

The Azerbaijani government expects the current account surplus to be 5.6% of GDP in 2025 and approximately 3% of GDP annually in 2025–2028, taking into account oil and gas production forecasts.

According to forecasts from the international rating agency Fitch Ratings, Azerbaijan's current account surplus will amount to $4 billion, or 5.3% of GDP, in 2025, and will decline to $3.9 billion, or 4.9% of GDP, in 2026.

The World Bank forecasts Azerbaijan's current account surplus at 11.6% of GDP in 2025. The bank expects this figure to decline in subsequent years: to 5.4% of GDP in 2026, to 3.8% of GDP in 2027, to 3.6% of GDP in 2028, and to 3.4% of GDP in 2029.

According to forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, the current account surplus will amount to $6.1 billion (7.8% of GDP) in 2025, and will decline to $3.4 billion (4.1% of GDP) in 2026.