IMF expects only Azerbaijan among South Caucasus countries to maintain current account surplus in 2025–2026

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Azerbaijan's current account surplus will amount to 4.3% of GDP in 2025, reads the IMF's October review, titled "Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim," Report informs.

In 2026, this indicator will decline to 2.3% of GDP, and in 2030, a deficit of 0.8% of GDP is expected. Compared to April expectations, forecasts for 2025 have been revised downward by 3.5 percentage points, and for 2026, by 1.8 percentage points.

Among the South Caucasus countries, only Azerbaijan is expected to have a current account surplus in 2025-2026. Armenia's current account deficit is expected at 4.7% of GDP in 2025 and 2026, and 4.3% of GDP in 2030. Georgia's forecasts are 4.5%, 4.6%, and 4.9% of GDP, respectively.

According to the Central Bank of Azerbaijan, the current account surplus amounted to 6.3% of GDP in the first half of 2025. For the same period, the balance of payments surplus reached $2.3 billion, which is 11.7% less than in January-June 2024.

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) forecasts that the current account surplus will remain at $3-4 billion annually in 2025-2026.

The Azerbaijani government expects the current account surplus at 5.6% of GDP in 2025 and, taking into account oil and gas production forecasts, to be around 3% of GDP annually in 2025-2028.

According to forecasts from the international rating agency Fitch Ratings, Azerbaijan's current account surplus will be $4 billion, or 5.3% of GDP, in 2025, and will decline to 4.9% of GDP, or $3.9 billion, in 2026.

The World Bank forecasts Azerbaijan's current account surplus at 11.6% of GDP in 2025. In the following years, the bank expects this indicator to decline: in 2026 to 5.4% of GDP, in 2027 to 3.8% of GDP, in 2028 to 3.6% of GDP, and in 2029 to 3.4% of GDP.