Fitch Solutions: Azerbaijan's economy to grow by average of 2.4% in 2025–2027

Fitch Solutions (FS), an international analytical firm within the Fitch Group, forecasts Azerbaijan's economic growth at 2.6% in 2025, 2.4% in 2026, and 2.3% in 2027, Report informs referring to FS.

Thus, the country's average annual GDP growth in 2025-2027 is projected at 2.43%.

Azerbaijan's economy is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. Since a significant portion of economic activity is tied to the oil and gas sector (which accounted for 38.5% of GDP as of June 2025), the projected slowdown reflects a decline in industry revenues amid falling global oil prices.

Our oil and gas research team expects oil prices to decline by 15% year-on-year in 2025. However, risks to price forecasts for 2026-2027 are skewed to the upside due to tightening sanctions against Russia, which could impact some global oil supplies, the forecast states.

According to FS expectations, Azerbaijan's economy will grow by 2.9% in 2028, 3.6% in 2029, 2.8% in 2030, 2.5% in 2031, 2.4% in 2032, and 3% annually in 2033 and 2034.

Nominal GDP is projected to reach $102.4 billion this year, $110.5 billion next year, $115.6 billion in 2027, $121 billion in 2028, $130.8 billion in 2029, $141.5 billion in 2030, $152.1 billion in 2031, $163.3 billion in 2032, $175.1 billion in 2033, and $187.5 billion in 2034.

According to the Ministry of Economy of Azerbaijan, GDP growth is expected to be 3% in 2025, 2.9% in 2026, and 3.3% in 2027.

Forecasts from international rating agencies vary: S&P Global expects growth in 2025-2026 at 2% per year, Fitch Ratings at 3.5% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, and Moody's at 2.5%.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts growth of 3% and 2.5% for 2025-2026, respectively, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts 2% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. The Asian Development Bank forecasts growth of 2.4% and 2% over the next two years, respectively. The World Bank expects economic growth in Azerbaijan at 2.6% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. ING Group, the Netherlands' largest banking group, forecasts economic growth in Azerbaijan at 1.6% in 2026. In 2025, 2.8% in 2026, and 2% in 2027.

In 2024, Azerbaijan's economy grew by 4.1%, and by 1.3% in January-October 2025.