Researcher: Caspian Sea level hits 48-year record low

As of January 9, 2026, the water level in the Caspian Sea reached a critical mark of -29.11 meters relative to global sea level, surpassing the 1978 record, according to scientific researcher Said Huseynov.

He noted that over the past 12 years, coastal water levels have dropped by more than 1.5 meters. According to data from the German hydrological time series database for closed water bodies, this is the lowest level recorded in the history of modern observations.

"Today, two 30-year periods of sea-level decline are of particular interest: 1948–1978 and 1996–2026. Between them, there was an 18-year interval of rising levels. The previous record low of -29 meters was recorded at the end of the first 30-year decline period. After that, water levels increased by roughly 12 centimeters annually until 1995, reaching -25 meters and the highest level of the past 140 years," Huseynov explained.

The expert highlighted that in the first two decades of the 21st century, the Caspian level fell at a rate of 7 centimeters per year-20 times faster than global ocean rise. "The Caspian has entered a new crisis phase. Over the past five years, annual declines have reached 30 centimeters."

He added that the northern Caspian, bordering Russia and Kazakhstan, is particularly affected.

"Over the past 15 years, the eastern shoreline has retreated 8–10 km in some areas. Kazakhstan"s Dead Kultuk Bay has completely dried up, the Mangyshlak Bay has significantly shrunk, creating new islands, and the eastern shore of the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay, with a depth of 5 meters, has receded 26 kilometers," Huseynov said.

The situation on the Absheron Peninsula is somewhat better due to a deeper coastline. Water has receded by several kilometers, connecting Zygy Gum Island to the mainland. The "Eagle"s Beak" area, home to Absheron National Park, has lengthened and widened, and along Baku Boulevard the shoreline has retreated 15–20 meters.

Huseynov identified global warming, accelerated evaporation, and the construction of numerous dams on rivers feeding the sea as the main causes of the rapid decline.

"Changes in the Caspian"s level pose serious threats to surrounding areas. Continued declines and rising temperatures thicken algae layers on the surface, reducing oxygen levels and disrupting ecosystems. Coastal livelihoods and infrastructure are being damaged, and as the rate of change accelerates, these impacts intensify," he warned.