Bayrou decides to go all in - ANALYTICS

Another political crisis is brewing in France. The fact is that the initiative of Prime Minister François Bayrou to hold a vote of confidence in the government scheduled for September 8, and according to many analysts, doomed to failure, was an unexpected step, behind which, as it is believed, much broader political calculations are hidden than it might seem at first glance.

François Bayrou, not having the necessary support in the National Assembly, decided to find out how much they trust him before discussing the 2026 budget. The French prime minister, known as an experienced and ambitious politician, is actually leading his own government to resignation. In fact, this is a demonstrative gesture, allowing him to get out of a difficult domestic political and economic situation without trying to "save" an obviously ineffective structure.

Experts agree that Bayrou is guided more by the strategy of his personal political future than by the interests of the current cabinet. At the same time, the economic situation in France continues to deteriorate. This is primarily due to the debate over the state budget deficit and the growing public debt, which has exceeded 3,300 billion euros. Bayrou proposed a plan to cut budget expenditures by almost 44 billion euros, including measures that have already caused heated debate: freezing social benefits, limiting government spending, freezing the tax scale and, most unpopularly, canceling two public holidays.

Such measures did not find support in parliament, neither among the left, nor among the greens, nor among the communists, and especially not among the "unbowed", who have long had a grudge against Macron and his prime ministers.

Bayrou's career history confirms the above-mentioned. Having run for president three times, he has always positioned himself as a centrist candidate, an alternative to both right-wing and left-wing political forces. In the context of the upcoming 2027 elections, Bayrou may seek to strengthen his image as a politician who knows how to abandon a "sinking ship" in time and distance himself from the unpopular course of the current government. In this context, his departure is not a defeat, but a step towards a future campaign.   And for President Emmanuel Macron, what is happening is another attempt to get out of the chronic political crisis in which the country, driven by him, has found itself. Macron has repeatedly resorted to personnel changes, trying to soften the confrontation with parliament and regain his room to maneuver. However, the systemic nature of the crisis makes such steps ineffective. Macron will have to decide who will lead the new government. There are few scenarios: the appointment of a "technical" prime minister is again doomed to failure, and the choice of a representative of one of the major political forces (most likely, the left) is fraught with a sharp aggravation of the situation.   In conditions where neither the left nor the right opposition have sufficient resources to form a stable parliament, any decision creates the ground for another confrontation. It should be emphasized that the most radical steps have already been proposed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his movement "France Unbowed". They insist on the early resignation of not only the government, but also the president himself. Although the idea of ​​​​an early presidential election does not enjoy the support of the majority of political forces, the likelihood of such a scenario is gradually growing. If a year ago such an outcome seemed unrealistic, today experts estimate its chances at 20-30%. But such an option is still unlikely, since Macron himself will not resign, and impeaching him is a rather complex mechanism in France.  

  If Bayrou's cabinet loses confidence, Macron will have to appoint a new prime minister or dissolve the National Assembly, which will lead to early elections. Macron already resorted to this option last June, which led to the resignation of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. Overall, the parliamentary elections did not end well for Macron's party - it lost its majority in parliament. Nevertheless, Macron managed to push through his candidate for the post of prime minister. Now the French president once again has the opportunity to activate the clause on dissolving parliament and calling early elections. But there is no guarantee that he will be able to pull off last year's trick and form the government he needs.   Moreover, Macron's trust rating continues to fall and has dropped to a record high during his time as president - 15%. According to a Verian poll, 80% of the French do not trust the president. The level of trust in the country's Prime Minister François Bayrou has dropped to 14% - his lowest level since taking office. At the same time, 82% of the population do not trust Bayrou. Thus, we have to admit that France is on the threshold of a new round of political crisis. The outcome of the vote on September 8 will determine only the form in which events will develop: whether the demands for early elections will increase, or whether the president will be able to buy time through personnel changes. However, in any case, it is obvious that the country's political system needs a more profound restructuring than a simple replacement of prime ministers.